FanBoardHQ

Western Michigan

Western Michigan University · 2023 · Mid-American

FanBoardHQ CFP
#117
Efficiency
-17.8
123rd FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-7th
of 12
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Western Michigan went 4-8 and was ranked 117th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 97th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 127th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 54% of offensive plays with an 85th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 46% of plays with an 113th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-0
Q2
0-2
Q3
0-3
Q4
4-3

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
115th
-6.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
121st
full season
121st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
107th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~6.8 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Saint FrancisNECW 3517+17.2100%-15.4Q4
2@ SyracuseACC#81L 748-15.60%-46.4Q3
3@ IowaBig Ten#30L 1041-23.90%-16.5Q2
4@ ToledoMid-American#43L 3149-21.30%-12.2Q2
5vs Ball StateMid-American#116W 4224+0.1100%0.5Q4
6@ Mississippi StateSEC#76L 2841-16.20%-15.4Q3
7vs Miami-OHMid-American#44L 2134-12.90%-18.8Q4
8@ OhioMid-American#54L 1720-17.30%-3.6Q3
9@ Eastern MichiganMid-American#112W 4521+0.7100%-0.2Q4
11vs Central MichiganMid-American#107W 3828+0.3100%-7.5Q4
12@ Northern IllinoisMid-American#84L 024-12.90%-34.4Q4
13vs Bowling GreenMid-American#75L 1034-10.50%-43.3Q4

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Western Michigan, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-42.7-22.9-3.2-15-46-17-121-15-19-4-0-7-34-43Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 113th
SR 113thYPP 104thEPA 115th
RushingEff 85th
SR 121stYPP 77thEPA 74th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 128th
SR 130thYPP 124thEPA 121st
Rush defenseEff 122nd
SR 125thYPP 116thEPA 120th
Dropback rate 46%Tempo +2.0 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 67th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 37%1st · Defense allowed: 45%1st2nd · Offense: 42%2nd · Defense allowed: 41%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 39%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 45%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 59.0Q1 · Allowed: 78.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 86.0Q2 · Allowed: 104.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 41.0Q3 · Allowed: 104.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 79.0Q4 · Allowed: 78.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledWestern MichiganOffenseDefense
Western Michigan Offense vs Defense, 2023
Offensive EffRanked 97th
-4.7
Field position: -2.3Finishing drives: -2.5
Field position -2.3Finishing drives -2.5= -4.7
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 125th · Finishing 83rd

Defensive EffRanked 127th
-11.7
Field position: -2.9Finishing drives: -8.8
Field position -2.9Finishing drives -8.8= -11.7
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 132nd · Finishing 125th

1.81 points per drive on offense, 2.49 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 28.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(204)46% / 54%42%6.0
Q2(257)51% / 49%42%5.2
Q3(188)48% / 52%38%4.9
Q4(206)50% / 50%34%5.1
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(162)10.240%5.2
2nd(138)8.741%6.4
3rd(96)8.929%5.8
4th(22)4.436%7.7
All (418)38%5.9
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(189)9.835%4.0
2nd(150)6.943%5.5
3rd(81)4.644%5.0
4th(17)1.171%4.5
All (437)41%4.7

Western Michigan, all games.